The Next Decade by George Friedman

From The Week of March 27, 2011

It may be that Mr. Friedman is correct in his cynical, American-centric view of the world and where it is headed, politically and economically, over the next decade, but if he is right, then it is a world I want no part of.

The United States is an empire in all but name. It is from this core truth that Mr. Friedman extrapolates his premise for The Next Decade. Empires exert their power for the betterment of their citizens. First, they use political force. If that fails, they fall back on economic pressure. And if even that fails, then they rely on the last resort, military power, to get their way and secure their interests. An imperial government's primary purpose, in Mr. Friedman's world, is to coldly assess the points at which it can take most advantage and to exploit them for the betterment of their constituents. To this end, Mr. Friedman gets out an Atlas of the world and ruthlessly assesses each region's usefulness to the United States. If it is vital, then he offers suggestions on how best to first secure and then to maximize the relationships with that region. If, however, that region doesn't have much to offer the United States, he dismisses its importance and moves on, searching for the next point of exploitation.

The Next Decade is a case study in why loathing for the United States is so widespread throughout the world. For Mr. Friedman's vision of America is no more ethical or moral than the British colonialism that so successfully ruined large swaths of Africa and Asia. If they have something you want, figure out a way to take it. If they don't, well, just make sure they don't have any guns that can threaten you and otherwise leave them be. For a country founded on anti-imperialistic principles, for a country that sought to have "peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none," (Jefferson) Mr. Friedman's imperial outlook is a betrayal of the core idea of freedom that fuelled the American Revolution.

But even if we assume, for the sake of debate, that America is an empire in all but name, this does not mean it should exercise this power! Every time power is used, an angle is worked, an advantage capitalized on, enemies are created. Yes, it is the responsibility of governments to represent their citizens as best they can, but this representation cannot come at the expense of others. The endgame of that philosophy will always be acrimony.

This is a fascinating and provocative primer on how an imperial power looks at and assesses the world. We can only hope that no one in a position to act on its suggestions pays it more than academic heed. (3/5 Stars)